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José Ramón Díez, director of Bankia Estudios.

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At the Second Bankia Meeting with retail shareholders

José Ramón Díez: "The Spanish economy stabilises, after the slowdown in recent quarters”

The director of Bankia Estudios, has broken down the five keys that will determine the scenario in 2020: very low interest rates for a long time, trade conflicts, fears of recession, political risk and moderate growth.

Communication Bankia

By  Communication Bankia

Publish on 
12 December 2019 - 12:15

  • The director of Bankia Estudios explained to shareholders in Madrid the global context of the economic and financial landscape and what are the trends and prospects of the Spanish economy
  • In the global context, Díez anticipates similar GDP growth for 2020

The director of Bankia Estudios, José Ramón Díez, said that "the Spanish economy stabilises, after the slowdown in recent quarters." "We are in the deceleration phase of the cycle, but we are still showing greater dynamism than the average of the European Union", he added.

Díez, who has participated in the Second Bankia Meeting with shareholders in Madrid, stressed that, in a global context, "similar GDP growth is expected for next year, 2020, and the balance sheet of risks over the growth will continue to have a downward tendency”.

In addition, he explained the five keys that will determine the scenario in 2020: very low interest rates for a long time, trade conflicts, fears of recession, political risk and moderate growth.

Similar GDP growth is expected for next year, 2020, and the balance sheet of risks over the growth will continue to have a downward tendency

José Ramón Díez
Director of Bankia Estudios

Growth has weakened overall and Díez has pointed out that "the deceleration phase persists and an improvement is only viable if uncertainty decreases". He also stressed that the cost of the trade war is high, especially over the global industrial sector. "Europe has once again been one of the main disappointments of 2019 due to Brexit, the Chinese trade war and the automotive industry," he added.

The director of Bankia Estudios explained that the ECB’s strategy aims at “fewer negative side effects for banks, which have been penalised excessively”, adding that “the sensitivity of the banking industry to the interest rate environment must start to play in their favour after a long time against them ". "The sharp decrease of the Euribor in summer was an excess of pessimism of the market that is being corrected and has probably reached his minimum values already", he explained.

Spanish economy

Nationally, in Spain, employment loses momentum, but household income is accelerating thanks to the wage recovery. Household consumption has been losing dynamism due to uncertainty, and purchases of durable and large-scale goods, such as car purchases, have been negatively affected. "The climate of uncertainty impairs the confidence of agents, which negatively affects investment", said the head of Bankia Estudios.

The director of Bankia Estudios has been optimistic and said that "the decrease in the forecasts has been widespread but the probability of a more severe economic adjustment is very small". For the current financial year, the bank estimates that GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2019 and around 1.5% in 2020.

Spain is in a more balanced position than in previous cycles, the production structure is "healthier", the external balance has become positive and competitiveness is improved thanks to the containment of internal prices and costs. "However, unemployment remains at very high levels, private debt remains high and public debt reduces the margin of fiscal policy to possible shocks", he said.

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